I Told You So!
2024 U.S Presidential Election Fallout
2024 U.S Presidential Election Fallout
Introduction
I wrote this essay on November 14th and 15th, 2024, ten days after the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.
Like many Americans, I was shocked by the election results. Republicans not only won the presidency, but reclaimed small majorities in both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. Now, together with a conservative U.S. Supreme Court, the MAGA faction of the Republican Party controls all the levers of power within the federal government for at least two years.
For ten days after the 2024 election, I reflected on how and why this tragic election result had occurred, and what it could mean for the future of our country.
To soothe my frustration, I wrote the following essay, then forgot about it. Next, out of more anger and frustration, I decided to wean myself off my “news-junkie” habit. I quit reading the New York Times, but kept my subscription. I canceled my Xfinity account which meant no more access to and switching channels among CNN, MSNBC, Fox News, NPR, and other news channels. I went “news dark."
As a result, I felt free with less anxiety and fear for my country and for my grandchildren’s future. But, as Ronald Reagan famously said, “You can run, but you can’t hide.” As much as I tried to emulate an ostrich with its head in the sand, I kept hearing the apocalyptic chatter concerning the damage the Trump 2.0 sycophants had done and are planning to do to the United States Federal Government.
I forgot about this essay till yesterday, March 31, 2025. I discovered it buried amongst other ideas and writings while reorganizing content I store in my note taking app, Obsidian.
I started reading it and was amazed at how much of my “bat-shit crazy” predictions of what might happen in the Trump 2.0 term had already happened.
2024 U.S Presidential Election Results
In a predicted toss-up election, it was expected if Trump won the electoral college vote it would be close. And, he would surely lose the national popular vote by a considerable margin. But, he won the electoral college vote 312 to 226 and the popular vote by 3 million out of 147 million — landslide.
By all conventional political standards, Trump was the worst possible candidate for any public office. Here is a partial list of reasons which should have disqualified him:
Convicted: E. Jean Carroll rape and defamation case, Stormy Daniels hush money case.
Impeached twice by the House of Representatives.
Failed businessman: Trump University; Trump’s Atlantic City casinos; US Football League, Trump Plaza Hotel, etc.
4,000+ law suits filed by him or against him with customers, subcontractors, relatives, local, state and federal governments.
Helsinki press conference with Vladimir Putin.
Etc.
Any one of the above reasons should have disqualified him. He won anyway.
How much more lopsided would the election results have been if the 2024 Republican candidate for President had been a humble charismatic man, who fought in the Afghan war, was educated at a mid-western state college, had been a reputable business owner, had been a local politician, and was then a state politician? I think that candidate would have gotten elected with 70%+ of the popular vote – maybe more.
The American People have spoken!
Over the next four years and beyond, America and "all" Americans will reap what Trump voters have sown.
We, the People, have chosen a self-proclaimed dictator who has openly said, "This would be the last presidential election the American people would have to worry about." Trump implies he would declare himself dictator for life. Sounds like Julius Caesar in ancient Rome, or more recently:
Mussolini in 1922
Stalin in 1924
Hitler in 1933
Putin in 1999
Now, we have Trump in 2025.
Why Trump Won
Trump won because a majority of voting Americans were, and still are, confused, frustrated, scared, ignorant, and feel helpless in the face of national and global threats and instability. They desperately want some benevolent force or entity to take control and "just fix it." Their votes say they believe they had found it — Trump 2.0!
Misdeeds
Trump voters were willing to accept or overlook Trump's and his sycophants' adjudicated, illegal, and immoral misdeeds - lying, cheating, stealing, and exploiting others in the pursuit of wealth and power.
Issues
Trump voters mostly cared about issues which have had or they felt would have an immediate impact on them such as, inflation and immigration. They mostly ignored the long-term existential issues over which they have little understanding or control:
Societal divisions: racial, cultural, economic inequality, religion.
Information flow and content crisis: too much information, misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation.
Climate-related crises: extreme weather events (catastrophic storms, floods, extreme heat), famine, drought, rising sea levels.
“Forever” chemical pollution
AI control crisis
Future pandemics
The “Underdog Effect”
Americans love “underdogs” – individuals fighting alone against a horde of others who are hounding, persecuting, and prosecuting them — and, in Trump’s case, shooting him at a rally. Americans typically want the underdog to prevail, regardless of the circumstances. Certainly, all of Trump’s “hard-core”, MAGA voters felt this way. I suspect many independent, swing-state voters were infected by the “underdog effect?”
We’ll never know how big a factor this was in the election.
Tribal Backlash
There was a "tribal backlash" by religious, mostly white, "closet-racist" Americans against liberal progressives' and the media's focus on Project 1619, "Black Lives Matter", "Wokeness", and LGBTQ+ rights and acceptance. Trump voters and the majority of Americans are still, at best, covertly racist and homophobic. They do not want to acknowledge or discuss these topics.
Fly-over Country
Add the grievance-filled resentment and jealousy of coastal elites by the residents of "Fly-over country" and you have a "perfect storm" for venal politicians to exploit voters.
And, they did!
Trump and the MAGA elites knew which voter buttons to push to win the election. Democrats pushed all the wrong buttons. By the time Democrats woke up to reality, it was too late to convince enough independent and unenthusiastic Trump voters to vote for Harris.
Why Harris Lost
Harris primarily lost the election because the Democratic Party (DNC) misread the American People:
The DNC failed to detect American's ideological shift to the political Right.
The DNC continued to ignore the perceived needs of rural, mid-western Americans — "fly-over Country."
The DNC took the support of the unionized working class (male and female), Latinos, and Palestinian sympathizers for granted by assuming Harris and other DNC candidates were the lesser of two evils compared to Trump and other GOP candidates.
The DNC was perceived as promoting an unfair focus on "Black Lives Matter", "wokeness", LGBTQ+, and other small minority issues rather than focusing on the needs of the majority of Americans.
The DNC underestimated the impact of Christian nationalism.
The DNC overestimated the importance of the overturning of Roe vs Wade to female voters.
Kamala Harris was handed a "shitty" baton. When she took the baton she was already behind Trump due to: the DNC’s misreading of the American People, Biden's geriatric debate performance, Americans' lack of understanding and appreciation of the Biden Administration's policy and legislative achievements, and the American People's collective dementia regarding trump's actions and behavior during his first term in office and thereafter.
For her part, Kamala Harris did a great job. She trumped Trump in their only debate. She tried to move her policies to the center in an attempt to correct the DNC's misreading of the American People and to attract independent voters and anti-Trump conservative voters. Her last-minute efforts were not enough — a case of "too little, too late."
The die had already been cast. Her rational, inclusive, centrist approach did not change the polling numbers much. Trump's stumbling, fumbling, bumbling, and mumbling during the final weeks of the campaign did not move the polling numbers either. His erratic behavior during this period should have disqualified him as unfit for office. But, within the statistical margin of error, he was still slightly ahead right up to election day.
I suspect an underlying reason Harris did not win is she is a woman. America is still not yet ready to trust a woman to run the country.
In the last 225 years, Americans have not changed much. Many of us are:
Still racists
Still misogynists.
Resent immigrants, although 99.99% of Americans have immigrant roots
We are tribal
As the country has become more diverse, it has become more divided by tribe. Republicans were able to form a tribal coalition that got Trump elected. Democrats failed to maintain their historically, winning coalition.
The Next Four Years
My wake-up call regarding the political direction that post-election America might be heading came when both the Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times chose not to endorse a candidate for president. They had always done so in previous elections. Why not for this election? Then, the thought struck me, "Two of the largest most respected American news organizations were afraid." They feared Trump's wrath and retribution should they endorse Harris and then Trump won."
The Washington Post is owned by Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon and one of the world's richest men. During Trump’s first term as President, Trump punished Bezos for the Washington Post's criticism of him by canceling at least one of Amazon's government contracts. Is Bezos afraid of Donald Trump? Or, maybe Bezos wants to join Elon Musk as one of the would-be oligarchs waiting for Trump to be inaugurated to begin their process of "Making America Great Again."
Tipping Point
In retrospect, November 5, 2024, may be recognized as the tipping point at which the United States of America began its transformation from a messy, dysfunctional democratic constitutional republic to an amalgamation of an oligarchy (government by the few), plutocracy (government by the wealthy), and autocracy (one person rule). If you study US history, the American government has always been heavily influenced by oligarchs and plutocrats. Now, we are in the process of increasing the executive branch’s power to a level where the President is a de facto autocrat.
On January 20th, 2025, we will inaugurate a government led by Trump, his puppeteers, and sycophants. Through control of the Supreme Court, Senate, and House of Representatives, the Trump Cult will control, for at least two years, all the levers of power. Trump and the MAGA elites will have carte blanche to execute the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025 or some other plan for the reorganization of the federal government.
Knowing they may only have 2 years of legislative control, they will move as fast as they can.
Project 2025
Project 2025 is not the first time the Heritage Foundation has prepared a transition and governing plan for a Republican administration. Their first plan was prepared for and used by the Reagan administration.
The Foreword of Project 2025’s core document, The Conservative Promise, states four (4) principal goals:
1 - “Restore the family as the centerpiece of American life and protect our children”
This goal is centered on the belief that the American family structure is eroding and in danger of imploding.
To fix the American family structure they propose:
Restructuring government subsidies for poor families.
Enshrining tax exemptions for churches.
Targeting what it calls “woke progressive warriors.”
Outlawing pornography.
Suppressing transgender ideology and rights.
Aggressive promotion of universal school choice.
Excising “critical race theory” and “gender ideology” from curricula in every public school in the country.
Pursuing a nation-wide ban on abortion while offering tax breaks and government financial support for adoptions.
2 - “Dismantle the administrative state and return self-governance to the American people.”
This goal is centered on the belief that good government is limited government — as specified in the Constitution. This goal implies that most government functions that manage and support people’s lives should be returned to state governments, local governments, community organizations, churches, and families.
To dismantle the administrative state, The Conservative Promise suggests the next conservative President should:
Transfer back to Congress the Constitutional responsibility to pass detailed laws which Congress abdicated to the Executive branch over the past decades.
Reorganize all Federal executive branch departments and agencies — focusing on the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Homeland Security, Education, Defense, Justice, and State Departments.
3 -“Defend our nation’s sovereignty, borders, and bounty against global threats.”
This goal is based on the premise that citizens should not rely on federal, state, or local governments to defend our families, local communities, churches and synagogues, and neighborhoods.
The Conservative Promise suggests the next conservative President should defend against:
Control by the “enlightened, highly educated managerial elite”.
Corporations bent to the will of the “woke” agenda, foreign investors, and organizations rather than their American workers and customers.
Top tier university presidents or Wall Street hedge fund managers alienated from “the parents at a high school football game in Waco, Texas.”
“Left’s love affair with environmental extremism” — a “pseudo-religion.”
“Elite support of economic globalization.”
China’s multi-pronged assault on American hegemony.
Any attempt to limit America’s exploitation of its oil and gas reserves for economic or strategic purposes.
4 - “Secure our God-given individual rights to live freely — what our Constitution calls “the Blessings of Liberty.”
This goal equates “the pursuit of happiness”, as stated in our Declaration of Independence, with “God-given” or “Creator-ordained” “blessedness” and states that “religious devotion and spirituality are the greatest sources of happiness around the world.”
To secure our “God-given” individual rights, The Conservative Promise suggests the next conservative President should:
“Champion the dynamic genius of free enterprise against the grim miseries of elite-directed socialism.”
“Promote pro-growth economic policies.”
Reform federal taxes and regulations.
Implement antitrust enforcement against corporate monopolies.
“Promote educational opportunities outside the woke-dominated system of public schools, universities, including trade schools, apprenticeship programs, and student-loan alternatives that fund students’ dreams instead of Marxist academics.”
“Crack down on the crony capitalist corruption.”
Defend 1st Amendment rights by stopping Big Tech censorship.
I believe most Americans, regardless of political affiliation, would agree, in principle, with aspects of one or more of The Conservative Promise’s four principal goals.
However, many of the policy recommendations proposed to achieve these four goals seem to be combative, controlling, or histrionic.
The Conservative Promise’s recommendations often conflict with each other:
The Conservative Promise wants limited government allowing individuals to pursue, in their own way, “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness”, but at the same time it demands that a nation-wide abortion ban be mandated by the Federal government.
The Conservative Promise enshrines the 1st Amendment’s right to freedom of speech, but wants certain books banned and teachers and librarians prosecuted for teaching anything in or about these books or making them available in a public school or library.
- The Conservative Promise wants the next conservative President, Trump in this case, to relinquish power back to Congress to force Congress to properly perform its legislative duties as defined in the constitution, but Trump says he wants to be a dictator.
January 6th Insurrectionists
Expect that early in his 2nd term President Trump will pardon all the January 6th insurrectionists charged with federal crimes. This will send a clear message that they were patriots not insurrectionists. His pardons will embolden their future actions against anti-trump protesters and Americans that aren't sufficiently respectful to Trump, Der Fuhrer.
Citizen Protests
Democratic Party resistance is expected to be fierce as Trump’s second term as President gets underway.
If citizen protests are widespread and Anti-Trump, expect Trump to unleash the Proud Boys and other high testosterone, right-wing groups to try to break up these protests. If the protests are too large and widespread for the Proud Boys et al. to handle, expect Trump to deploy the National Guard.
If Trump were to directly or indirectly deploy the Proud Boys et al., that would be no different than Hitler unleashing his "Brown Shirts" on German Jews in the 1930s.
Putin and Russia
Hitler admired and emulated Mussolini. Why shouldn't we expect Trump to emulate Putin. Trump displayed a kinship with Putin and other dictators and autocrats during his first term. Remember Trump's news conference with Putin in Helsinki? We can expect Trump and his MAGA elites to cozy up with Vladimir Putin and other autocrats to get assistance in executing the transformation.
As Trump embraces Putin expect Ukraine to be coerced into surrendering all territories occupied by Russia and pledge to not join NATO or the European Union (EU).
Autocracy
If the GOP retains its control of the Senate and House of Representatives in the 2026 Federal elections, they may be able to complete the transformation. We should expect the transformation to invoke a lot of "twisting" and "bending" of, but not violating the Constitution. We can expect Supreme Court rulings using constitutional “twists” and “bends” similar in scope to the Supreme Court's ruling in "Citizen's United." We can expect more transfers of power from Congress to the Executive. All these efforts would be focused on making the President more powerful at the expense of the legislative and judicial branches of the United States government.
If the GOP manages to complete the transformation, Our government may then be a version of the Russian and Chinese governments - an autocratic leader, aided by plutocrats and oligarchs, but retaining relatively powerless legislative and judicial branches of government to give the appearance of a functioning democratic constitutional republic.
The transformation will be aided by rapid technological advances in AI and social media. the United States' information flow and citizens will be under increasing tight government control — propaganda and surveillance just like China.
2028 and After
If Trump does what he says he will do, then the 2024 election was our last free and fair Federal election.
In violation of the Constitution, Trump's ego may want him to be President again in 2028. Trump will then be 82 years old. His physical and mental health might be failing. He probably won't want to serve. By that time, he will probably have become bored as he will have no doubt already exacted his revenge and retribution against all those who had opposed him or he had classified as "the enemy within."
I suspect that during Trump’s 2nd term, the Trump cult will have figured out how to retain power by rigging Our 2028 Federal elections — just like Maduro did in Venezuela in 2024.
I would not be surprised if Trump promoted his son, Don Jr., or another MAGA sycophant to be the next two-term or more, President of the United States. If this were to happen that would likely permanently change the governance of the United States. At that point, there would be no going back to the "good old days" of a dysfunctional democratic constitutional republic.
History Repeats
During the 1920s and 1930s in post-WW I Italy and Germany, the inability of their nascent democratic governments to solve soaring inflation and other societal issues led to the rise of autocracies led by Mussolini and Hitler. In both cases, the people got what they wanted — stability. Mussolini and Hitler gave their people economic and political stability, plus regained pride in their nations in exchange for their people's freedom, liberty, and human rights.
America in 2024 faces scarily similar conditions to Italy and Germany in the 1920s and 1930s:
1. The perception that economic conditions are bad for most citizens.
Although the inflation rate has come back down to pre-pandemic levels, the prices of many commodities are still 20% – 50%, or more, higher than pre-pandemic prices. Wages in many sectors of the economy have risen to counter inflation. The unemployment rate is at historic lows.
But, a large majority of the people still believe the economy is in bad shape.
2. The belief that the federal government is incompetent and dysfunctional, as evidenced by:
The reelection of a venal, bombastic, charismatic (to some), geriatric, narcissistic convicted criminal as President.
Unqualified, divisive, disruptive citizens elected to Congress (e.g. Marjorie Taylor Green, Lauren Boebert, Paul Gosar, et al.).
An evenly divided, hyper-partisan Senate and House of Representatives that cannot seem to legislate.
America has additional conditions currently undermining or which could undermine the foundations of its government:
Societal divisions: racial, cultural, economic inequality, religion.
Information flow and content crisis: too much information, misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation.
Climate-related crises: extreme weather events (catastrophic storms, floods, extreme heat), famine, drought, rising sea levels.
“Forever” chemical pollution
AI control crisis
Future pandemics
Immigration crisis
Like Italy and Germany, America's government, as constituted in 2024, seems incapable of dealing with its dysfunction while facing the challenges presented by the additional societal conditions listed above.
Trump, in his own words, and his MAGA elites believe converting America from a constitutional democratic republic to an autocracy is the answer.
Trump’s Last Chance
Trump can't change who he is anymore than a leopard can change its spots. His DNA, unique set of childhood traumas, and adult epigenetic experiences have made him the unique individual he is — at this point in time. Perhaps his "super-sized" ego will decide that he should go down in history as an exceptional, complex human being who executed the transformation to "Make America Great Again" and helped navigate the world through a complex series of existential crises.
Based on his past, well-documented behavior, this seems unlikely. But, one can hope.
Winston Churchill said, "To every man there comes in his lifetime that special moment when he is figuratively tapped on the shoulder and offered a chance to do a very special thing, unique to him and fitted to his talents, what a tragedy if that moment finds him unprepared or unqualified for that which would be his finest hour."
The next four years will be Trump's special moment and could be his finest hour.
How will the Trump of this moment in time behave? Will he be the biblical "Do-gooder" sinner his Evangelical voters believe he is, or will he be the vengeful, venal, convicted criminal of his first term as President?
It Is Broken
Every organization must be able to anticipate and adapt quickly to both predictable and unpredictable changes in its physical, cultural, and political environments. Our Federal government is no exception.
The US government failed to anticipate "911". Some federal agencies saw warning signs, but did not act. After the "911" incident the Federal government responded by improving inter-agency communications and creating the Department of Homeland Security to consolidate government functions relating to illegal incursions by land, sea, and air.
We have to accept the reality that the structure of the bureaucracy running our democratic constitutional republic is not prepared to address the "rolling crises" of this moment or predicted future moments.
Trump and his MAGA elites are right when they question the efficiency and effectiveness of the Federal government bureaucracy, the deep state. Bureaucracies are always flawed. They must undergo frequent reviews and reorganization to meet the needs of their moments.
Conceptually, the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025 although flawed and in some respects counter-productive, is a step in the right direction — governments should plan for change. However, Project 2025 does not focus on reorganizing the Federal government to optimally confront the previously mentioned existential crises on the horizon:
If you stop and think, you might notice that the sources of our existential crises can be traced back to humanity's misuse of science and technology.
Humanity must act quickly and decisively to ensure science and technology are used to:
Improve conditions on Earth for all of its remaining species.
Solve the problems created by its misuse.
Avoid future misuses.
How to Fix It
Maybe it doesn't matter whether the United States is a republic, a democracy, an autocracy, a theocracy, or some other form of government. What matters is for the United States and the World to have forms of governance designed to address and solve Earth's and Humanity's looming existential crises.
Imagine a government run by humans, independently certified as competent, who create and deploy science and technology to confront and solve these crises. Let's call this form of government technologic.
A technologic government would be focused on addressing and solving Earth's and humanity's existential crises. A technologic government might consist of a Supreme Court of Science and Technology (SCST). This proposed SCST would have sole jurisdiction over the development and deployment of any science or technology that would or could affect one or more of Humanity's or the Earth's defined existential risks or crises, such as nuclear power, fusion power, AI, nanotechnology, genetic engineering, etc.
The SCST would have a mandate to use 21st-century science and technology to:
Reverse the damage caused by the careless use of 19th, and 20th-century technologies before that damage becomes irreversible.
Mitigate irreversible damages.
Prevent future damages.
This SCST might consist of fifteen (15) members. Twelve (12) of the SCST members would be elected by *qualified, registered citizen* voters from a cohort of *vetted* candidates. Each member might serve a 5-year term. After each SCST member election, the SCST would select one of its members as its leader.
The other three (3) members would be appointed by the 12 elected members and would share the governance of the people and maintenance of societal infrastructure through appropriate government agencies.
The SCST would directly supervise and oversee a set of agencies responsible for developing and deploying various sciences and technologies to combat humanity's and the Earth's defined existential risks and crises
In a technologic governed society, citizens should not be qualified to vote unless they have demonstrated, through rigorous vetting, that they have a sufficient level of intelligence and education to understand the qualifications required of SCST members, and other elected officials, and voter ballot measures.
There are many potential flaws to this governance concept. However, we must find a way to focus our government, whatever its form, on the rapid deployment of scientific and technological resources to confront and overcome our existential risks and crises.
Pandora’s Box
In Greek mythology, a curious Pandora opens a box given as a gift to her husband from the Gods. The box contains all the evils capable of afflicting Man. As Pandora opens the box all the evils escape to afflict Man forever. Pandora tries to close the box, but not quickly enough for all the evils to escape. As Pandora closes the box she sees “Hope” still in the box.
We opened our Pandora’s box in the last half of the 18th-century — the industrial age.
Humanity’s misuse and careless use of the instruments and products of science and technology over the last three centuries have created and are continuing to create the existential crises confronting humanity, Earth, and Earth’s other species.
We are at a four-pronged fork in the road:
1. Fork 1: We, humanity, could choose to emulate the Luddites of the early 19th century by demanding that all development of new sciences and technologies and the use of existing technologies cease — to the extent feasible.
Limit procreation to dramatically reduce the human population to a level the Earth can sustain.
2. Fork 2: Trump and succeeding conservative administrations could force us to follow the Heritage Foundation’s path as defined in Project 2025 — Unrestrained fossil fuel use, global dominance of oil and gas markets, hand-cuffing of the Environmental Protection Agency, elimination of the Department of Education, etc.
3. Fork 3: We can continue doing what we have been doing — slow-motion transition to technologies to confront existential crises.
4. Fork 4: We could listen to scientists and aggressively act — develop, deploy, then control the sciences and technologies designed to rapidly reverse, mitigate, and prevent the effects of the existential crises we have unleashed on ourselves, the Earth, and its other species.
The solution is to “fight fire with fire” — “Fork 4.”
No matter which fork in the road we take there will be huge societal consequences. The longer we delay taking “Fork 4” the worse these consequences will be for our children and grandchildren.