The Point of No Return
Is WWIII inevitable?
History
For America, World War II started on December 7th, 1941, with the bombing of Pearl Harbor.
World War II had become inevitable many years before. What was the tipping point? Was it Japan’s invasion of Manchuria in 1931? Was it Hitler’s rearmament of Germany’s armed forces in violation of the WW I Armistice? Was it Hitler’s annexation of Austria in 1938, his annexation of Czechoslovakia’s Sudetenland in 1938, or his invasion of Poland in 1939?
There are too many current similarities and analogies to the economic and political dysfunction leading to World War II for us not to worry about a current trajectory towards World War III.
Tipping Point
A tipping point is a critical point in a situation, process, or system beyond which a significant and often unstoppable effect or change takes place.
What was or will be the tipping point that makes World War III inevitable? The Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014? Trump’s overt embracing of Russia’s Vladimir Putin in 2016 and thereafter? The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022? Hamas’ murder of 1,200 Israelis on October 7, 2023? Israel’s subsequent and ongoing Gaza genocide, 2023-2026? Trump’s reelection in 2024? Trump’s “soft” abandonment of Ukraine in 2025. Trump’s schism with NATO in 2025-2026. Trump’s unilateral bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities in June of 2025? Netanyahu’s manipulation of Trump’s USA to join Israel in starting an unprovoked war against Iran on 2-28-2026, in the midst of negotiations with Iran? Or, will the tipping point be Iran’s and America’s mutual unwillingness to negotiate in good faith in April 2026?
Maybe the answer is all of the above, with the failed April 2026 Iranian-American negotiations being the “straw that broke the camel’s back.”
Question
What are the chances that a fascist, authoritarian regime (the American federal government in 2026) with its recent track record as a global political and military bully whose military is led by a “wannabe” Christian Nationalist crusader is going to successfully negotiate peace with an authoritarian theocratic regime (Iran) willing to martyr itself and its people in the name of their God, Allah?
The chances of negotiating a lasting peace agreement between these adversaries are not very good!
Conclusions
This situation seems eerily similar to: 1) the 1938 peace negotiations between the UK Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain, and Adolf Hitler — ultimately a waste of time and effort, and 2) Hitler’s incessant bombing of England from July 10th to October 31st 1940, the Battle of Britain.
In 1938, Chamberlain thought he could negotiate a lasting peace with Hitler’s Germany, a fascist, authoritarian regime, not unlike Trump’s America. Hitler faux negotiated and tricked Chamberlain into believing there would be “peace in our time.”
In 1940, Hitler thought he could conquer England by bombing it into submission.
Chamberlain and Hitler were both wrong. Their tragic miscalculations were resolved by World War II.
In the current situation, the difference is that Trump’s America bombs first, then faux negotiates, while the Mullahs’ Iran welcomes the bombing as a form of martyrdom, leading to Allah’s paradise and his gift of 72 virgins.
This is a case of an irresistible force (Trump’s fascist autocratic American regime) colliding with an immovable object (the Mullahs’ and IRGC’s theocratic Iranian regime).
If the tipping point has not already occurred, get ready for someone to make that big mistake or miscalculation that will be the tipping point.